Facebook has become one of the most popular social media platforms since its launch in 2004. With over 2.9 billion monthly active users as of the fourth quarter of 2021, Facebook’s global reach is unparalleled. However, there have been some signs indicating that Facebook’s growth is slowing down and that its reach may be starting to decline.
Facebook’s User Growth
For many years, Facebook saw tremendous user growth. The number of monthly active Facebook users increased every quarter, rising from 845 million in December 2011 to 2.8 billion in December 2020. This represents a growth rate of over 230% in 9 years.
However, Facebook’s user growth started to slow significantly in 2017. In Q4 2017, Facebook reported 2.13 billion monthly active users, an increase of 14% year-over-year. By Q2 2021, the year-over-year growth rate had slowed to just 7%, with 2.90 billion monthly active users.
| Year | Monthly Active Users | Year-Over-Year Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2017 | 2.13 billion | 14% |
| Q4 2018 | 2.32 billion | 9% |
| Q4 2019 | 2.50 billion | 8% |
| Q4 2020 | 2.80 billion | 12% |
| Q2 2021 | 2.90 billion | 7% |
This declining user growth indicates Facebook is nearing saturation in some markets. The company even reported a slight decline in daily active users in North America in Q2 2021, further suggesting its reach is plateauing in mature markets.
Facebook Usage Trends
In addition to slowing user growth, there are signs that existing Facebook users are spending less time on the platform and engaging with it less frequently.
According to Facebook’s internal research published by the Wall Street Journal, time spent on Facebook by US teenagers was down 16% year-over-year as of 2019. Engagement, measured by likes, comments, and shares, was also down 15% among teenagers over the same period.
Other third-party studies have reported similar declines in Facebook usage. A 2021 survey by eMarketer found average time spent per Facebook visitor in the US declined from 38 minutes per day in 2020 to an estimated 37 minutes per day in 2021. This represents a 2.6% year-over-year drop in usage time.
| Year | Avg. Daily Time Spent per Facebook User (minutes) |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 38 |
| 2021 | 37 |
These engagement metrics indicate that while Facebook’s overall reach remains high, existing users are finding less reason to spend time and interact with the platform as frequently as they once did.
Emergence of Alternative Platforms
One of the key factors in Facebook’s declining growth and usage rates is the rise of alternative social media platforms.
Apps like Snapchat, TikTok, and others are taking up more of people’s mobile social media time. A 2021 internal Facebook report indicated its app’s global share of the social media market had declined from 81% in 2016 to 60% in 2021.
Younger users especially are flocking to newer visual-centric apps like TikTok. An internal Facebook memo from late 2021 indicated that teenagers now spend over 17% of their time on TikTok, compared to just 8% on Facebook/Instagram.
As more social media options compete for people’s attention, it appears that existing Facebook users are spreading their time and engagement across multiple apps instead of consolidating on Facebook.
TikTok’s Growth
TikTok highlights the threat that emerging platforms pose to Facebook’s dominance. After launching outside of China in 2017, TikTok has seen tremendous growth:
- TikTok hit 1 billion monthly active users globally in 2021
- It was the most downloaded app worldwide in 2020 and 2021
- TikTok has an estimated 120 million monthly active users just in the US as of Q3 2021
With its addictive short video format, TikTok provides an alternative social media experience that many find more engaging than Facebook’s core News Feed offering. TikTok’s demographic also skews very young, aligning strongly with the coveted teenage demographic that Facebook is struggling to maintain engagement with.
Growth of Snapchat, Twitter, & Others
Beyond TikTok, apps like Snapchat and Twitter have also continued to grow their user bases:
- Snapchat reached 293 million daily active users in Q2 2021, up 23% year-over-year
- Twitter hit 206 million monetizable daily active users in Q2 2021, up 11% year-over-year
While their total user bases remain below Facebook’s, their growth illustrates that people are spreading their attention across an increasingly fragmented social media landscape.
Facebook’s Challenges with Younger Users
Facebook’s declining growth is especially acute among younger demographics. Apart from the competition from apps like TikTok, Facebook also appears to suffer from an “uncool” reputation among teens and young adults.
Surveys have found that younger users are motivated to avoid Facebook due to:
- Having parents and family members on Facebook
- Concerns over privacy and data usage
- A cluttered, confusing user experience
- Perception that Facebook is for older generations
These perceptions have made it very difficult for Facebook to attract and retain younger users. Pew Research found that from 2019 to 2022, the share of 13 to 17 year olds who say they ever use Facebook dropped from 67% to 32%.
| Year | Percentage of teens who say they ever use Facebook |
|---|---|
| 2019 | 67% |
| 2022 | 32% |
Facebook’s reputation as an “old person’s platform” will continue to erode its ability to attract first-time teenage social media users if current perceptions persist.
Is Facebook Reach Really Declining?
In summary, while Facebook remains the dominant global social media platform in terms of total users, there are clear signs its reach is plateauing and potentially declining among key demographics:
- Slowing user growth, especially in mature markets like North America and Europe
- Decreasing engagement and time spent by teenagers and young adults
- The rise of popular competitor platforms like TikTok
- Ongoing “uncool” brand perceptions that hurt Facebook’s appeal to younger generations
Facebook faces substantial challenges to reverse these trends. It has tried to attract younger users by acquiring and building youth-centric platforms like Instagram and, more recently, Meta’s VR “metaverse.” However, thus far these have not offset the declines on Facebook’s core platform.
Facebook will likely remain a leading global social media force given its scale and resources. But its days of relentless growth and domination over the social media landscape appear to be over. Key user engagement metrics and attention seem set to be spread across platforms old and new. While not dead, Facebook’s reach does look to be past its peak with an uncertain future trajectory from here.