Facebook was founded in 2004 and quickly grew to become one of the largest social media platforms in the world. At its peak in 2018, Facebook had over 2.2 billion monthly active users. However, in recent years there have been signs that Facebook’s popularity is starting to wane, especially amongst younger users. This article will examine the evidence that Facebook may be past its heyday and declining in popularity.
User Growth Slowing Down
For many years, Facebook experienced explosive user growth. However, this growth started to slow down significantly around 2018. Looking at Facebook’s monthly active users (MAUs) shows how growth has stalled in recent years:
| Year | Monthly Active Users |
| 2017 | 2.13 billion |
| 2018 | 2.27 billion |
| 2019 | 2.50 billion |
| 2020 | 2.60 billion |
| 2021 | 2.91 billion |
As you can see, user growth between 2017 and 2021 was much slower than in previous years. After adding over 100 million users from 2017 to 2018, growth slowed to only around 30 million in 2019 and 10 million in 2020. This indicates Facebook is nearing saturation point in many developed markets.
Younger Users Less Active
There is evidence that Facebook is losing popularity amongst younger demographics, particularly teenagers and young adults. A 2021 survey by Pew Research found only 32% of US teens aged 13-17 said they use Facebook. This was down from 71% in 2014-15. For 18-29 year olds, Facebook use dropped from 87% to 44% in the same period.
Other data also shows younger people are finding Facebook less cool and less relevant to their lives. A 2017 survey by Piper Jaffray found only 23% of teens considered Facebook their most important social platform, down from 52% in fall 2014. Snapchat and Instagram now take the top spots.
This loss of younger users is concerning for Facebook. Teens and young adults are often early adopters and trendsetters for social media. If Facebook is no longer a hot platform amongst this demographic, it suggests it’s past its prime and becoming outdated.
Daily Active Users Declining
As well as monthly active users, Facebook’s daily active users (DAUs) also show signs of stagnating. DAUs measure how many people actively use Facebook on a daily basis, which gives a better indication of engagement than just registered accounts.
In Q4 2021, Facebook reported 1.929 billion daily active users on average for December 2021. This was unchanged from 1.930 billion average DAUs in December 2020. Facebook’s DAUs have hovered around 1.9 billion for over a year, showing little growth.
Stagnant DAU figures suggest existing users are interacting with Facebook less frequently than before. People with accounts are not bothering to check Facebook as often as they used to.
Less Time Spent Per User
Another engagement metric that is declining for Facebook is average time spent per user. This measures how many minutes per day the average user spends on Facebook’s apps.
Average time spent per user peaked at 50.9 minutes in Q1 2021. But by Q3 2022, it had dropped to 45.7 minutes. This indicates users are not sticking around to scroll Facebook’s newsfeed as long as they used to.
Less time spent per user is another sign engagement is falling. People logging into Facebook are getting bored faster and staying for shorter sessions.
Revenue Growth Slowing
One key indicator of Facebook’s waning popularity is that its revenue growth has slowed considerably. Facebook makes money primarily through advertising. More users and more engagement allows Facebook to offer advertisers access to more potential customers and charge higher ad prices.
In 2020, Facebook reported revenue growth of 22% year-over-year. But in 2021, revenue growth slowed to 37%. In Q3 2022, growth was down to just 4% year-over-year.
Slowing revenue growth suggests advertisers are seeing less value in Facebook’s platforms. This ties back to stagnant user growth and declining engagement metrics. Less appeal to advertisers is a tangible impact of Facebook’s loss of popularity.
More Negative User Sentiment
Studies of user sentiment and opinion towards Facebook find a growing negativity in recent years. People are expressing more disappointment, irritation and dissatisfaction with aspects of the Facebook experience.
For example, a 2022 survey by Sprout Social found 62% of US Facebook users felt Facebook has a negative effect on society. Only 23% said Facebook has a positive impact. Users cited issues like misinformation, divisiveness, toxicity and privacy concerns.
Additionally, Facebook’s brand reputation has declined. Axios reported Facebook’s “reputation score” dropped from 33.4 in January 2021 to 25.3 in January 2022, based on Morning Consult polling. The score measures the share of people who view Facebook positively versus negatively.
Souring user sentiment is both a cause and effect of Facebook’s waning popularity. People are more unhappy with aspects of Facebook, which makes them less eager to use it. And declining usage exacerbates dissatisfaction.
Less Social Comparison
Some experts point to reduced social comparison as a factor in Facebook’s declining popularity. Facebook and Instagram usage is linked to negative effects like poorer body image and low self-esteem.
A 2021 study found a one-week Facebook break improved participants’ life satisfaction and emotions. This suggests constantly comparing yourself socially on Facebook has downsides.
Younger generations may be deliberately reducing their Facebook usage to avoid negative social comparison traps. Focus is shifting more to competing platforms like TikTok that are less based on profiling personal lives.
More Competition
Another contributor to Facebook’s loss of dominance is increased competition from other platforms. In its early years, Facebook had limited rivals in social media. But today, the landscape is far more crowded.
Apps like TikTok, Snapchat, YouTube and Twitch are absorbing much of the time teens and young adults once spent on Facebook. Messaging platforms like WhatsApp and WeChat also divert attention.
Even Facebook-owned Instagram is now larger and more influential than its parent company among younger demographics. Competition for user attention and engagement is tougher than ever.
Trying to Pivot to Metaverse
In response to declining popularity of their social media offerings, Facebook is attempting to pivot to a new focus area – the metaverse.
In October 2021, Facebook changed its parent company name to Meta Platforms. This signals their ambition to go beyond social media into emerging technologies like virtual and augmented reality.
Meta wants to turn Facebook into a metaverse platform where users interact via digital avatars and virtual worlds. This could potentially appeal to younger generations losing interest in traditional social media.
However, metaverse technology remains extremely nascent. Betting Facebook’s future on this untested concept is an acknowledgment that its existing social networks are losing their lustre.
Summary of Decline Indicators
To summarize, here are the key datapoints showing Facebook is past its peak:
– Stalling monthly and daily active user growth
– Loss of popularity with teens and young adults
– Decreasing average time spent per user
– Slowing revenue growth
– More negative brand sentiment and user opinions
– Less social comparison by younger people
– More competition from rival platforms
– Pivot to metaverse signals weakness in core business
Counterpoint – Facebook Remains Hugely Popular
Despite the above concerns, it’s important to note Facebook remains one of the most popular social media platforms globally. Any decline is happening gradually. Facebook is far from disappearing.
As of Q3 2022, Facebook reported:
– 2.96 billion monthly active users
– Nearly 20% of worldwide population uses Facebook each month
– 1.98 billion daily active users on average
– Family of apps (Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger) has 3.71 billion monthly users
These are still huge user figures that most other social media players cannot match. Facebook’s sheer size means it has room to shrink while remaining dominant for years to come.
Facebook is also addressing threats like competition from TikTok. For example, Meta’s Reels feature copies TikTok’s short video format and has achieved some success. Such innovation may help Facebook maintain market position.
In developing countries like India, Facebook also continues to rapidly gain new users. Growth prospects remain stronger in these nations.
Facebook pioneered the social media industry. It has entrenched itself globally to an extent that will be hard to fully dislodge anytime soon.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while Facebook remains a behemoth, the evidence suggests it has passed its zenith of popularity and is now in a slow decline, especially amongst younger demographics in developed nations.
Stalling user growth, falling engagement metrics, negativity around brand image, and loss of “cool” factor indicate Facebook is losing relevance. Competition from more innovative platforms is also eroding Facebook’s dominance.
Attempting to pivot to the metaverse is an acknowledgement that Facebook’s existing social media properties are struggling to attract users as they once did.
Yet Facebook’s immense size and resources mean it will continue to play a major role globally for years to come. Complete demise is unlikely in the short or medium term. But Facebook’s glory days as the top social network are likely over. Maintaining cultural relevancy looks set to be an increasing challenge.