Facebook has long claimed to have over 2 billion monthly active users. In its latest earnings report, it stated that it now has 2.91 billion monthly active users across its family of apps including Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger as of September 2021. This raises the question – does Facebook really have 3 billion users? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.
Facebook’s reported user numbers
Facebook reports its monthly active users (MAUs) every quarter as part of its earnings report. This refers to the number of unique users who logged into Facebook during the last 30 days of that quarter. Here are Facebook’s reported global MAUs for the past few quarters:
| Q3 2020 | 2.74 billion |
| Q4 2020 | 2.80 billion |
| Q1 2021 | 2.85 billion |
| Q2 2021 | 2.90 billion |
| Q3 2021 | 2.91 billion |
As you can see, Facebook has reported steady growth in its MAUs over the past year, going from 2.74 billion at the end of Q3 2020 to 2.91 billion by the end of Q3 2021. This represents an increase of 170 million users in one year.
Breakdown by platform
Facebook also provides a breakdown of its MAUs by platform:
| Platform | Q3 2021 MAUs |
| Facebook app | 1.93 billion |
| 1.34 billion | |
| Messenger | 1.3 billion |
| 2 billion |
As you can see, while the Facebook app itself has 1.93 billion MAUs, Instagram now has 1.34 billion and Messenger and WhatsApp each have over 1 billion MAUs. Combined across all its platforms, Facebook has 2.91 billion MAUs as of Q3 2021.
How accurate are Facebook’s user numbers?
The big question is – how accurate are Facebook’s reported MAU numbers? There are a few factors to consider:
- Self-reported metrics – As a publicly traded company, Facebook’s MAU disclosures are regulated. However, the numbers are still self-reported by Facebook based on its own analytics.
- Multiple accounts – Many people have multiple Facebook accounts, which could inflate MAUs.
- Inactive accounts – MAUs include anyone who logs in at least once a month. This means a lot of inactive accounts are still counted.
- Developing markets – Facebook has many users in developing countries like India and Indonesia. But these users on average spend less time on the platform.
Facebook has provided more transparency around its metrics due to various scandals like Cambridge Analytica. But there is still a certain level of trust involved in taking their MAU numbers at face value.
Alternative user metrics
Apart from MAUs, other useful metrics about Facebook’s user base include:
- Daily active users (DAUs) – Number of users who logged in and visited Facebook on a given day. This provides a sense of how engaged Facebook’s users are.
- Average revenue per user (ARPU) – Facebook’s quarterly revenue divided by global MAUs. This shows how much revenue Facebook makes from each user.
These metrics provide additional context beyond just how many monthly users Facebook has. For example, while Facebook may have close to 3 billion MAUs, its DAUs are likely much lower, possibly in the 1.5-2 billion range. And its global ARPU is around $7.57 as of Q3 2021, suggesting most users have low commercial value to Facebook.
Does Facebook overstate its user numbers?
Based on the available data, here are some key points on whether Facebook may be overstating its user base:
- MAUs can be inflated – Multiple accounts, inactive users, and different platforms likely inflate Facebook’s MAUs compared to actual number of unique users.
- Developed vs developing markets – Vast majority of new user growth comes from developing countries where engagement is lower.
- DAUs provide more clarity – Facebook doesn’t break down DAUs, which likely show smaller core user base.
- ARPU metric – Low ARPU per user signals developing world accounts have less commercial value.
However, it’s unlikely Facebook is outright fabricating its numbers even if they may be presenting them in the most favorable way possible. As a public company, completely falsifying MAUs could amount to fraud.
Independent user analytics
Third-party data providers also attempt to measure Facebook’s user base independently. For example:
- eMarketer estimated Facebook had 2.90 billion MAUs in Q2 2021, very close to Facebook’s own number.
- Statista estimated Facebook will reach 2.96 billion MAUs by 2025.
- Smart Insights estimates Facebook active users peaked at 2.7 billion in 2020.
While these third-party estimates vary slightly, they corroborate Facebook is indeed in the 2.5 to 3 billion MAU range. Significant fabrication of user numbers by Facebook is unlikely.
Does it matter if MAUs are inflated?
For Facebook as a business, monthly active users are arguably less important than other metrics like revenue, profit and average revenue per user (ARPU). Facebook’s stock price is tied more closely to its earnings rather than MAU counts. So does it really matter if Facebook’s MAUs are somewhat inflated by duplicate accounts or inactive users?
There are a few reasons why the accuracy of Facebook’s user reporting still matters:
- Investor transparency – Publicly traded companies need to be fully transparent in their financial disclosures.
- Advertiser value – Advertising dollars chase audience size and demographics, so inflating MAUs inflates perceived value to advertisers.
- Competitive benchmarking – Facebook’s scale is frequently compared to competitors. Larger MAU size implies market dominance.
While MAUs have limitations, they are still one of the most widely cited metrics regarding Facebook’s market position and reach. More transparency from Facebook around its user calculation methodology and reporting would be beneficial.
Conclusion
In summary, Facebook likely does have around 2.5 to 3 billion global MAUs across its family of apps as reported. However, this aggregate MAU number possibly overstates Facebook’s total number of unique users due to factors like account duplication and inactive accounts.
The MAU metric has limitations in capturing true user engagement and commercial value to Facebook. While Facebook is not likely outright fabricating numbers, more transparency would help validate its reported user base.
Measures like daily active usage and revenue metrics like ARPU provide additional insight into the nuances of Facebook’s user base beyond just how many users log in each month. But the multi-billion MAU figure Facebook cites dominates headlines and shapes perceptions of its market dominance.
Independent third-party user analytics firms largely corroborate Facebook’s self-reported numbers, but estimates vary slightly. In the end, Facebook likely does have around 3 billion users – but the full story behind that number is more complex.
The massive scale of Facebook’s user base is undisputed. But like any large corporation, taking their major metrics at complete face value without closer scrutiny is ill-advised.
While Facebook’s business model does not depend directly on total MAUs, the tension between maintaining investor transparency and presenting user numbers in the most favorable light persists as long as MAUs dominate external benchmarks of Facebook’s reach and engagement.